Following the announcement in the Scottish Parliament yesterday by First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, that a new Independence Referendum is definitely on the cards by at least 2021, we look at what the circumstance are likely to be that lead to a definite date.
Brexit is clearly the vehicle that is driving this new desire for Scotland to take care of its own affairs, given that a majority of Scots voted to stay in the European Union. It is also the tool that the SNP are using to drive through a second referendum by pushing the message that the uncertainty of the UK Governments efforts to push its Brexit plans have left Scotland with no choice other than to take the situation into its own hands.
So what are the likely dates?
A lot of this will depend on what happens with Brexit, and that is currently very much unknown. Theresa May doesn’t have the support of Parliament and is therefore unable to control the sequence of events. She has presented her plans on three occasions already for a vote and has each time been defeated not only by the opposition benches by also by her own Ministers.
So the only dates we really know about are the 31st October, which was the final date laid down by the European Parliament, after which the UK is to depart the EU, and the 22nd May, when Theresa May has said she hopes to push her deal through parliament. This of course, is the final day before the EU Parliamentary election. Which means that she would realistically need to push a deal through well before this if she wants to stop people from heading to the polls. And it is very, very, likely that she will want to do this as opinion polls have suggested that the Conservative Party will be more or less wiped out in the EU elections and that is an embarrassing situation that Theresa May will be very keen to avoid.
This then brings us to a likeliness that an exact date for “indyref2” will be announced immediately after the EU elections as May’s deal does not appear to have changed and will therefore be very unlikely to be voted for by parliament (unless there is a freshly negotiated condition attached in relation to the Irish backstop… also very unlikely). This gives us then an announcement on 24th May of a date for the next Scottish Independence referendum to be held some time in 2020 or early 2021.
The clock is ticking.
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