We are in the final days of the UK as an equal partner in the European Union as we hurtle rapidly towards the 31st January departure date.
The Conservative government with its significant majority have been able to fast track pretty much anything they like through parliament with very little getting in their way. And they have certainly taken full advantage of that position to “Get Brexit Done”.
The “Get Brexit Done” slogan has been banded around frequently since the General Election and appears to be a goal to meet a deadline regardless of cost or sacrifice. The slogan maybe should have been “Get Brexit Done at All Costs!”.
To make matters worse, the departure from Europe appears to be supported by only one of the UK’s four countries, with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all making waves about their desire to remain in the EU, causing a considerable amount of pain and discomfort for Boris Johnson’s government.
The situation has triggered demands for a second independence referendum in Scotland and has resulted in the Northern Irish Assembly at Stormont to resume after three years of closure, signalling the potential unification of Ireland. This places the UK right in the middle of the largest constitutional crisis of modern times.
The UK will definitely get the Brexit it wants, or at least within the timeframe it wants, but on which terms it isn’t entirely clear yet and the wider fallout may result in the breaking up of the UK.
The Irish border question is yet to be resolved, with no sign of a clear cut solution on the horizon that will keep everybody happy. The same situation exists with Gibraltar, where 95.9% of its population voted to remain in the EU on a very high turnout of over 80%.
Whilst the governments of the UK and Spain have come to an agreement not to use Gibraltar as a ‘choking point’ in future negotiations, there have been continuous suggestions from Spain that its ultimate desire is to reclaim the territory.
Matters become even more complex when we look at Northern Ireland and Scotland. Both of which have their own issues. Northern Ireland have specifically requested that no hard border is put in place between itself and Southern Ireland, which remains part of the EU. However, this isn’t so easy to resolve, and there is no straight forward solution in sight.
Scotland, who voted to remain in EU by a huge majority, have been frequently reminding the UK government that its voting population were told during the independence referendum that the only way to guarantee staying in the EU was to vote no to independence.
After the exit date of 31st January 2020, there will be a one year transition period during which the UK will still be part of the customs union and the single market and the will continue to abide by EU rules, despite not being a member. This will allow businesses and organisations to make necessary arrangements in readiness for a full departure on 31st December 2020.
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